Third-quarter audience trends have been "disappointing" so far for U.K

"Disappointing" recent audience trends should improve in the fourth quarter, and lower ratings for the return of "X Factor" "may build" as the season continues, UBS says though.

LONDON - Third-quarter audience trends have been "disappointing" so far for U.K. commercial broadcaster ITV amid the BBC's strong ratings for its coverage of the Summer Olympics, UBS analyst Tamsin Garrity said Monday in lowering her full-year 2012 and 2013 advertising revenue forecast for the company.

Olympics 2012: BBC Reaches Biggest Average Audience With Closing Ceremony
"Audience has been disappointing through the third quarter, though ITV has a strong programming slate for the fourth quarter," she said in a research report.

For 2012, the analyst lowered her advertising revenue estimate for ITV to growth of 0.5 percent, down from 2.5 percent previously, but still ahead of the consensus expectation for no change. For 2013, she expects no gain, down from her previous projection of 1.5 percent growth, "although this is offset by better interest and tax," which should help profitability, Garrity said.

The UBS analyst also said that ratings for ITV should improve in the fourth quarter, and lower ratings for this weekend's return of Simon Cowell's X Factor "may build" as the season continues.
"ITV management stated it is confident audience share will be stronger in the fourth quarter," Garrity wrote. "On the weekend, ITV proceeded with the return of the X Factor and a rejuvenated Red or Black; initial viewing was low at 8 million (last year 11 million), however this may build." And she highlighted that other returning shows over the near-term include Downton Abbey.

Jefferies analyst Will Smith said X Factor "is very visible, so people take note," even though most analysts don't spend much time on individual shows.

"It sounds like September is tracking a bit better than expected on ad spend," Smith said though.
Garrity echoed that. Announcing its latest results last month, ITV said that ad revenue in September will come in between unchanged from 2011 to down 5 percent, leaving the first nine months of 2012 unchanged. "Media buyers think this is slightly pessimistic," she said.

Thank you Hollywood Reporter

More info:www.hollywoodreporter.com

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Changing TV habits center stage at digital media presentation...

NEW YORK -- The prime-time television ratings drop took center stage at the Digital Content NewFront presentations in New York, with former ABC Entertainment Chairman Lloyd Braun seizing on the numbers as an opportunity to talk about changing viewing habits -- and the rise of digital media.

In an onstage conversation with MediaLink Chairman and digital guru Michael E. Kassan, introductions had barely been concluded before the topic was broached: The four broadcast networks have lost viewers in recent weeks. And, unlike in years past, audiences aren't gravitating to the cable networks.

Braun, who joined the world of digital media after being forced out in 2004 as the top programming executive at ABC, referred to a trend reported in the New York Times as evidence that viewers are moving away from watching television shows live, when they initially air. Viewers increasingly are using online services, such as Netflix Inc., to get caught up on past seasons of award-winning shows, such as the PBS series "Downton Abbey" or AMC's "Mad Men," and watch current episodes through digital on-demand offerings, he said.

"There is no reason anymore -- for most of this kind of programming -- to watch it live," Braun told a group of advertising buyers attending Microsoft Corp.'s digital advertising presentation Tuesday.

The trend has been on the horizon for years, Braun noted, adding with obvious frustration that advertisers continue to pay higher rates to air commercials during prime-time TV, despite the gradual erosion of the audience. He said he expects the trend to continue, as buyers attend next month's presentations by the major networks of new fall shows and commit billions of advertising dollars for the upcoming season.

This year's ad sales season, known as the upfront market, is expected to raise nearly $9.2 billion in commitments from advertisers.

"What I think has been driving people crazy on the digital side, we've all seen these charts which show time spent on the Internet versus where the [ad] spend is going," said Braun, co-founder of BermanBraun, an independent media company that develops television, feature film and digital programs. "There's this huge gap where the audience is spending time online and with tablets and smartphones, and the ad dollars are not commensurate with that."

The desire to grab advertisers' attention -- and dollars -- is behind the Digital Content NewFronts, during which five major online distributors will highlight their new shows for buyers.

Microsoft brought out some star power -- including U.S. Olympic gymnast and gold medalist Dominique Dawes, now a Fox Sports analyst, actress Felicia Day of "The Guild" and Kate Snow, NBC News correspondent with "Rock Center With Brian Williams" -- to promote the content available through its MSN portal and through the Xbox Live service offered via its game console.

Ross Honey, Xbox Live general manager of entertainment and advertising, sought to portray the Xbox 360 as a broad-based home entertainment device that offers more than video game play. It has struck some 50 content deals in recent months, including agreements with cable giant Comcast Corp. and Time Warner Inc.'s premium cable network, HBO, that offer subscribers access to TV shows via the game console.

The Xbox Live service has grown 30% in the last year to 40 million members, Honey said. Indeed, Xbox 360 consoles outsold other individual devices that connect the TV to the Internet, including Blu-ray disc players.

Entertainment usage on the Xbox Live has more than doubled, year over year, Honey said.

"In the U.S., entertainment usage has surpassed multiplayer gaming on Xbox Live," Honey said, referring to the video game industry term for players who connect via the Internet to oppose one another. "That's a profound event. When Xbox Live started 10 years ago, what it was all about was mutliplayer gaming. Now, Xbox Live really is an all-in-one entertainment platform."

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Oscar ratings down from last year

Still, kudocast holds relatively well among young adults
By RICK KISSELL

Hosts Anne Hathaway and James Franco couldn't raise the younger Oscars demo as producers had hoped, with the show down 7% from last year.

Sunday's Oscars were highest-rated in New York, which had a 33.9 household rating to top local markets.

One year after expanding the best-pic category to 10 films, ratings for the Academy Awards remained strong despite showing some declines.
An average aud of 37.6 million tuned in to ABC's telecast Sunday, off 10% from last year's 41.7 million, which repped a five-year high, but ahead of both 2009 (36.3 million) and the record low of 2008 (32.0 million). This is a larger aud than anything but football these days, towering over the top-rated seg of this season's "American Idol" on Fox (26.2 million) as well as the second most popular kudocast (the Grammys on CBS drew 26.7 million).

And a somewhat calculated decision by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to go for a younger audience with 20-something thesp hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway seems to have paid off: The Oscars were down just 5% in adults 18-34 (10.6 vs. 11.1). Ratings fell off in the 12%-13% range in other categories including adults 18-49 (11.7 vs. a 13.3 last year), 25-54 (13.2 vs. 15.2) and 50-plus (19.8 vs. 22.5).

This year's list of Oscar nominees recognized an unusually diverse crop of specialty titles ("The King's Speech" and "Black Swan") and B.O. powerhouses ("Inception" and "Toy Story 3") -- a byproduct of the expanded best pic category; in all, five of the best-pic nominees have topped $100 million domestically.

Still, there was nothing approaching the B.O. bounty of last year's "Avatar," which holds the all-time North America record for box office receipts and was a big factor in last year's ratings surge.

The preliminary national household rating/share for this year's Oscars was a 21.1/33 -- down 9% from last year's 23.3/37.

New York reclaimed its title as the top-rated local market (33.9 household rating), edging out Chicago (33.0), with Gotham up 14% from last year (when a battle between ABC station WABC and Cablevision kept the kudocast off the screens in roughly 3 million homes at the start of the show) and the Windy City down 12%.

Other markets in which more than 30% of households were tuned in to the Oscars were: San Francisco-Oakland (33.6), Kansas City (32.7), Boston (32.0), Denver (31.2), host city Los Angeles (30.8) and neighbor San Diego (30.3).

Advertiser demand was strong for this year's Academy Awards, with ABC reporting more than two weeks before the telecast that it had sold all available spots. And with each 30-second spot fetching roughly $1.7 million, the network was able to collect more than $80 million in revenue.

From 8 to 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC's "Oscar's Red Carpet Live" averaged a preliminary 26.4 million viewers, the spec's largest aud since 2007. And E! scored the most-watched "Live from the Red Carpet" in the net's history from 6 to 8 p.m., with its nearly 4 million viewers outperforming last year's delivery by 9% to become one of the net's 10 most-watched telecasts ever.

Following the Oscars, a special "Jimmy Kimmel Live" on ABC averaged about 4.5 million viewers, including 1.75 million in the 18-49 demo -- the second best post-Oscar "JKL" in the last four years. Featuring special appearances by Jessica Alba, Eva Longoria, Kelly Ripa, Minka Kelly and Sofia Vergara, it was up slightly vs. last year in women 18-34.

ABC also noted that preliminary data showed a 29% increase in viewers vs. last year on Oscar.com and the Oscar Backstage Pass App.

Thanks Variety!
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